Overview of the Northern Ireland Residential Property Market

The findings to date are up to the end of the third quarter in 2019.  The decisive election result in December 2019 should hopefully bring some clarity, reduce the low levels of confidence and uncertainty.  We will provide update for the year end when the figures are published.

This latest survey indicates a residential property market that is showing signs of stable growth, with transactions at the upper end of the market showing marked improvement over both the annual and quarterly periods. The level of price growth is the highest observed since the beginning of 2018. The overall average price of residential property in Northern Ireland for the third quarter of 2019 is £171,763, which represents a weighted annual level of growth of 5.0% between Q3 2018 and Q3 20191. When considering quarterly movements, the Index also displays an increase, of 5.7%, relative to the second quarter of the year.

In terms of market insights, estate agents perceive market sentiment to remain much the same as quarter two of the year, and indeed the last several quarters, with Brexit and the associated economic uncertainty continuing to curtail purchaser confidence and transaction levels. There is some noteworthy variation between agents regarding listing and transaction consistencies on a monthly basis, with some more optimistic about current market activity levels and the translation of viewings into agreed sales and completions. Conversely, other agents are slightly more cautious, citing slower market conditions which they foresee to continue, particularly in light of the lead-up to the festive period, when the market traditionally becomes quieter. Despite this more pessimistic outlook, a number of agents highlighted that market activity levels remain stable, particularly in key conurbations which have seen more transactions outside of the first-time-buyer sector of the market over the course of Q3 2019.

The distribution of sale price this quarter shows a movement in the price distribution of sales transactions from Q2 2019. The proportion of lower priced properties below £100,000 equates to 18%, reflecting a decrease of six percentage points. Properties sold at or below £150,000 accounted for 55% of transactions, compared to 58% in the previous survey. For the higher price brackets, 78% of transactions are at or below £200,000, with 87% of properties sold at or below £250,000 and 92% below the £300,000 price band, illustrating a 3% decrease in the transaction volume from the previous quarter. Overall, the analysis by price band indicates that there has been some movement within the mid to high value ranges, generally reflective of increased transaction volumes within the higher levels of the pricing structure. This suggests that there has been increased appetite within the higher price bands this quarter in the market, coupled with a reduction in stock transacting at the lower end of the pricing structure across Northern Ireland.