What Now for 2021

Who could have predicted what a year 2020 would have been.  The Covid-19 worldwide pandemic has wreaked havoc and continues to affect all our lives.  Few could have thought that everyone would still be affected in some shape or form still well into 2021.  Thankfully the vaccination roll out in the UK, across all four devolved regions has been successful, with some degree of normality likely to return in the second quarter of 2021 and further evolving.

The Brexit deal was concluded, typically for such negotiations at the eleventh hour and unfortunately there is still simmering discontent from a variety of parties unhappy at the final settlement.  Normally with such a significant directional sovereignty/identify change there were bound to be bedding in cultural/identity issues.  Sadly this is likely to continue with ongoing squabbling between various warring factions within the Local Assembly.

Despite the local lack of transactional activity in quarter two during the first lockdown, there was significant bounce back which continued throughout 2020 and into the first quarter of 2021.  Various analysts predicted house price falls and despite the rising unemployment, many business closed and unparallel government financial support through the furlough scheme, the housing market remained buoyant.  House prices on average rose from 2.8% quarter four in 2019 to quarter four in 2020, and up an average of 2.3% in quarter three to quarter four in 2020.  Within this average, when you look further into the statistics, some local council district areas and house type sectors showed further significant price rises.

After the first lockdown there have been several influential factors impacting on the housing market.  Unlike 2006/2007, the public are wanting to move for traditional reasons such as space, gardens, closeness to outdoor leisure facilities, schooling and increasing ability to work from home/remotely.  In 2006/2007 the market was fuelled by speculation and then a banking/financial crisis with limited finance available.  Trends now are for the public upscaling with the semi detached/detached market performing best and also coastal areas, Fermanagh and commuter villages/town locations.  People now want more space, the ability to work from home and good internet connections.  Northern Ireland is still perceived as good value for money relative to other regions in the UK and also Dublin.  This has seen a mass exodus back here from London and other large mainland cities and locations.  Interestingly other families have considered here, with no family connections, sighting value for money, schooling and the NHS as drivers.

House price rises in the North Coast are up 8.99% between quarter three and quarter four and other locations such as Omagh/Fermanagh up by 17.8% and Mid/East Antrim by 10.3%.

The Stamp Duty holiday has also been a major stimulus to instil confidence in the market.  With fiscal intervention ending later in the year, a truer picture may emerge of the property market.  There does still appear to be pent up demand and lack of new build construction and stock coming onto the market are still likely to keep prices buoyant.  In addition the availability of finance/mortgages will be a major determinant on the market.  Many commentators predict a slowing and possibly single digit dip by the end of the year.

All this is highly speculative and the main influencing factors are still likely to be the relaxation of lockdown measures, continuation of successful vaccination programme including globally, effective treatment against new Covid variant strains and at a local level consensus between politicians working for an economic recovery plan.

Hopefully we all can look forward to a happier sense of normality when reviewing the year ending 2021.